YPN Lounge: My Thoughts on the Road to Recovery for the Housing Market
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My Thoughts on the Road to Recovery for the Housing Market

What came first … the chicken or the egg? This age-old conundrum can be applied to the current housing market. According to the “experts,” the housing market should turn around by sometime in 2009 but could possibly turn around sometime in 2008.

Here’s my take on the market:

So what is it going to take for the housing market to start its recovery? The Fed has been aggressively cutting rates, but the impact has been minimal on the housing market. Since mortgage rates are not directly tied to rate cuts, it’s understandable that these rate cuts would not do much to bring a faster recovery to the housing market.

What about the economic stimulus plan? Won’t raising the limits on FHA loans and jumbo loans help spur a housing market recovery? It might, but, in my opinion, it is only a partial solution. The problem is that financial incentives are only helpful if they are actually taken

advantage of, and not just available to home buyers.

The housing market will only recover once those that are sitting on the fence make a decision to buy a home. With a few exceptions, the housing market is fueled by the first-time home buyer because they are the first link in the chain (so to speak).

On Long Island, as well as other markets across the country, there is a bottleneck being caused by home buyers who must first sell their home before making a purchase. When the housing market was rising, this process was started by first-time home buyers buying starter homes. The sellers of starter homes were then able to upgrade, and so on and so forth.

Media reports of doom and gloom in the housing market have kept many qualified home buyers on the sidelines as they try to time the bottom of the market. In essence, the media is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. As they report that the housing market is falling, potential home buyers are taking a “wait-and-see” approach, which only serves to keep the bottleneck intact.

Human nature is also playing a part in the delayed recovery. Most home owners think that their current home should be sold for top dollar. However, when they become home buyers, they balk at “unreasonable” home owners who are trying to get top dollar for their homes. Essentially, some of the most anxious buyers are also some of the least motivated sellers.

The bottom line is that the housing market recovery will happen when buyers and sellers set realistic expectations and find common ground. Only then will the media report that it’s OK to “jump back in the pool.”


Adam Waldman, e-Pro, SRES, is a Long Island REALTOR® with RE/MAX Best. He’s known as “The L.I. Relo Guy,” specializing in relocation.

Comments

Hi Adam I could not agree with you more. Its sad to say that we are very much influnced by our media . I think thats were we have to be the better decisions makers. Our focus needs to be on home ownership not media dome and gloom.We are making the largest purchase of our lives and its not being done in our best interest. God Bless

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