BY ROBERT FREEDMAN
Whenever chief executives of important organizations speak publicly you can bet their remarks are heavily scripted to ensure only market-tested messages get out. That’s why it was so refreshing to sit in on remarks made by Freddie Mac Chairman and CEO Richard Syron the other day.
He spoke before a few hundred politically active REALTORS who were in Washington, D.C., Feb. 5, to learn about today’s key federal real estate issues and get pointers on grassroots activism.
Syron spoke without notes — always a good sign that things might get interesting — and stayed to answer a few questions.
The upshot of his remarks is that we’re in a new kind of housing downturn this time around. Without mincing words, he said we’re probably in the worst housing crisis in the last 80 years because the cause of the crisis has novel components to it.
First is China’s role as the world’s largest emerging market, which has been exporting huge amounts of capital into financial markets while at the same time exporting huge amounts of low-cost labor. Thus, you have unprecedented liquidity (from its capital exports) in an environment of low inflation (from its labor exports).
Second is the securitization boom, which married the creation of novel mortgage financing instruments with a market of hungry investors worldwide.
Those two trends are the ones Syron says are novel to this downturn. Two other components —
the emergence of frothy housing markets and over-aggressive efforts by lenders and others to get people into homeownership before they’re financially ready — are things we’ve seen before because they’re products of human nature.
These four components interacted fine as long as home price appreciation remained positive, but once prices flattened or, in some markets, retreated, the system broke down.
Even so, Syron is bullish on the future. He gives the Federal Reserve (where he used to be a governor) credit for rolling out its dramatic three-quarters of a point cut in its short term interest rate a few weeks ago. The move signaled that the Fed understands the gravity of the situation.
He also credits Congress for taking serious steps to pass an economic stimulus bill. Of course, he’s glad the stimulus approach under consideration increases the conforming loan limits, to $720,000 That’s something Freddie Mac and its sister organization, Fannie Mae, have been seeking for years, as has NAR.
But more crucial to him, he said, is speed. Whatever the federal government ends up doing, it needs to get something enacted this spring if the action is to translate into a meaningful stimulus.
But he’s also bullish because of the country’s long-term growth prospects. Unlike much of Europe, the United States continues to grow thanks to strong immigration and robust birthrates.
Given all the talk today about excess inventory in many markets, it’s somewhat comforting to hear him say we still need 12 million new housing units over the next decade to accommodate our population growth. As he said early in his remarks, excess inventory is a problem but it’s not an intractable one.
Thus, he thinks analysts are missing the mark when they contend home prices might fall 30 percent or more before markets stabilize. He says price declines from peak to trough won’t be anywhere near that.